Saturday, April 29, 2006

The storm

So today's finally the day...the draft, one of my favorite days of the year. Funny though, that last night, the whole thing changed. I was watching Boogie Nights when Coughlin called. He told me that the Texans had signed Mario Williams, and then my jaw dropped, and my dag on top ten was messed up.

I could never have imagined anyone doing anything so unbelievably stupid. Bush is probably the best college player I've seen since Barry Sanders, Mario Williams is a guy who seems to come along every other year. The real loser of the pick though is not Bush, its Williams. Understand, to make the pick justifiable, assuming Bush is what I, and I think anyone with eyes believes he will be , Williams HAS to be Bruce Smith or Reggie White. He has to be a guy who'll be a first ballot hall of famer, otherwise the move will be Sam Bowie, the kind of thing that's on "Top five reasons you can't blame" in five or six years. Williams is a nice player with a lot of physical gifts, but I really don't believe you build a championship defense around a defensive end now. The Texans seem to be citing the Colts as the inspiration for the pick, saying they need someone to rush the passer. The problem with that, frankly, is that its idiotic. The three teams who have had success against the Colts in the last year and a half, the Patriots , Chargers and Steelers, all play the 3-4, they confuse Manning, the football robot, with bringing people from areas he doesn't expect. The 4-3 is more straight forward, more easy to plan for. I tend to believe that defensive ends are overrated in importance. A defense probably plays about 800 snaps a year, and probably 55% of those will be passes. If you have 15-20 sacks, a great year, then you've made that a difference in a play about 5 or 6% of those plays. championship defenses are built up the middle, or with great linebackers and secondary players. The Patriots have the best defensive line in the league, but its best player, Richard Seymour, isn't a great defensive end in the traditional sense. Dwight Freeney, Jevon Kearse, all of those great ends are wonderful, but none were taken #1 overall, and none were taken ahead of Michael Jordan in cleats.

The Saints actually don't need to take Bush now, at least if they deal it. They won't be remembered for doing that, at least not nationally. That being said, Deuce McAllister tore an ACL, usually an injury that takes more than a year to fully come back from. Bush will get the chance to be productive right away, and I'm sure Sean Payton and Drew Brees will figure a way to use him.

Still, the league office has to be salivating at the possibility of Bush, the most spectacular college player in a generation, playing in New York. So if you see some weird deal today that involves the Jets getting the 2nd pick for something a little less than they should, well we'll see about that. If they gave up their two first rounders, they could still take Eric Winston or Tamba Hali in the second. Eric Mangini, while he was Belichick's defensive coordinator, also is going to value versatility, which Bush gives you on offense

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