Sunday, July 03, 2005

3 men, 2 years

This is a subject I've wanted to get to for a while, if only because I know its going to be fascinating. My theory, and this has been one of those things I talked about a lot at TKA, if only because it was relevant there.

This past NFL draft (and likely, next year's as well), was considered to be very poor for quarterbacks. Both Alex Smith and Aaron Rodgers were thought to have significant warts to their games. For Rodgers, it was the lack of success of Jeff Tedford QB's. For Smith, it was questions about the offense he played in and his arm strength. Next year, you're going to see perhaps the most heralded college QB since Peyton Manning, only Matt Leinart has actually won something. You'll also have Omar Jacobs from Bowling Green very likely to come out, and he's among the best dual threats of the last few years, in terms of running and throwing, plus he's from the MAC, which has done well to replace QBs.

But its the QB draft in two years that will be incredibly fascinating for me. While there are a ton of great juniors, including Tyler Palko of Pitt and the new Fran Tarkenton, Drew Tate, of Iowa, to me, the top of the draft is likely to be headed by three men, each with their own argument for why they might be the best- Vincent Young, Chris Leak and Brady Quinn.

Young showed during the Rose Bowl that he is a freakish sort of athlete. While not quite as fast as Michael Vick, he is three or four inches taller, and still quite fast. The NFL has been all about the accomplishments and promise of McNabb, Vick, Culpepper and McNair in the last few years, enough that the classic dropback statue is now passe, and every quarterback needs at least some mobility in their favor. The problem I see though, is that Young's arm strength is certainly not to level of those others, or at the very least, we haven't seen it. Will the NFL forgive this, or will their be some team see him as a freakishly good wideout and not a QB?

The second man in this triumvirate is Chris Leak. During his freshmen year, Kirk Herbstreit constantly pimped Leak, essentially saying that if he were any skill position player, he would want to go to to Florida and play with Leak. Basically no one since Peyton Manning is seen as this sort of student of the game as much as Leak is. The problem has been that the team, and perhaps Leak himself, has underachieved under Ron Zook. Now, with Urban Meyer and his system, which takes better advantage of the athletes Florida has, and Leak's own althletic ability. Leak has a great arm and can make every throw, and is the ultimate student of the game. He has operated in sophisticated systems. He's done everything you can do to be considered a great NFL quarterback. Except he's only 6 feet tall, maybe 6'1". The NFL still doesn't seem to want to find a home for guys that short. Will they pass up the Derek Jeter of college football because of what might be thought of as a cosmetic problem?

The last to discus is Brady Quinn. As mush as the media seem to be reveling in Notre Dame being brought back to earth, the position of Quarterback at Notre Dame is still the most pressure packed position in the sport. It still carries the weight of those players who came before him, Johnny Lujack, Angelo Bertelli, Paul Hornung, John Huarte, Joe Montana and all the rest. That weight is what makes it one of the most trying positions in all of sports. Quinn has been ok the last few years, remember that the Irish made a bowl game last year, though they were crushed in the process. Now with Charlie Weis coaching him, Quinn will have the tools, in terms of a dynamic offense, to make plays and to grow. If Quinn grows up as a QB the next two years, the NFL will have to take a serious look at him, especially given Weis' track record with Tom Brady. Quinn seems to have the tools, lets see if Weis can teach him to harness them.

While all three of these QB's will likely be among the top picks, as well as others like Sam Keller and Palko, at least one will be a spectacular bust. I can already see Jaws and Merril Hoge criticizing Young's mechanics, Leak's height and Quinn's accomplishments. Maybe they'll be right. Maybe Young is the next Hines Ward, maybe Quinn the next Rick Mirer and Leak the next Shane Mathews. We'll see. But that's the fun of all this, and it'll be an incredible pleasure to watch these three (and Chad Henne, who hopefully stays a bit past this draft) grow and mature. Its why I love college football, and why the NFL draft is the event it is. You get to see where your favorites, who you've watched grow up, advance themselves.

2 comments:

CrazyJohn said...

I agree with your thoughts of the NFL draft... and isn't the fact that we haven't seen (and don't know) the players why no one can get very excited about the other major sports drafts (NBA, NHL, MLB)? Additionally, in the NFL, the expectation of draftees is that they'll play right away... while in other sports, draft picks don't necessarily start or even play in the league (i.e. the minors).
PS Quinn sucks.

Jimmy Shi said...

Indeed, the reason the NBA draft is no longer the big deal it used to be is just that. With more European and high school players, the public hasn't seen a large percentage of the highly thought of picks, which is totally different from the NFL draft. The baseball draft is basically held via conference call, so that's not good tv, and the NHL draft, unless it involves who gets Sidney Crosby is largely unknowns.

PS- He's still better than Jarious Jackson, Arnaz Battle, Matt Lovecchio and Carlyle Holiday