The Rock
Wonderful time being had across New England right now. Sysiphus has put the rock at the top of the hill, Tantalus has gotten something to drink. The Red Sox have won. While I admit the series itself was a bit anti-climactic following the Yankee series. 86 years of ghosts and frustrations will take it any way they can get it. If this is a vindication of anyone, its Bill James, because this team, more than any other with the exception of the A's, was put together with Sabermetrics in mind. Guys like Kevin Millar and David Ortiz were cheap, but Boston knew that if they wanted to put together the Sabermetrically perfect team, those would be two guys who could make it happen.
Now everyone's full attention has to turn to another sporting event, well two. One, we all have to root hard for the Packers on Sunday, even though I know a couple people who read this may be doing so anyway. I say this because everytime the Redskins have lost a game before an election, and this goes back almost 70 years, the incumbent party loses. (It also should be pointed out that the last two times the Red Sox won a World Series in an election year, the Democrat won, but the Democrat was Woodrow Wilson). The other is of course, the final race to the pole in the presidential race. Given the topic of discussion this week, and the reporting done by a Minneapolis TV station that you may see being nationally broadcast today, the reports from Iraq and about the missing explosives do not bode well for Bush. This puts him on the defensive in the last week, which I am sure is something he and Karl Rove didn't want to be doing. Meanwhile Kerry's appearing in front of one of the largest crowds in the history of the state of Wisconsin with Bruce Springsteen, just outside Miss Laura Kraly's back window. In addition, you have Rudy Giuliani going off script and, while appearing on behalf of the President, saying “No matter how you try to blame it on the president, the actual responsibility for it really would be for the troops that were there. Did they search carefully enough? Didn't they search carefully enough?” Bush has spent the last 18 hours saying that Kerry was questioning the Troops, which he wasn't, and then his own surrogate goes on the Today show and actually does blame the troops.
Its going to be a fun, and nerve racking, 5 days.
Thursday, October 28, 2004
Monday, October 25, 2004
The Nation
As I watched Game 6 last week, I may have officially become part of Red Sox Nation when I was at the Zone in the ninth inning. The classic shot of Red Sox fans, especially in games 4 and five last week, was of course those people watching the game thru their fingers. That was largely me on Tuesday. During the eighth and ninth I had taken a composite NBA schedule that was available their and nearly wore the ink off by rubbing it together in nervous anticipation. I was awed by what Schilling did, and what he did on Sunday as well. The man obviously has a huge pain threshold and frankly, may be one of the great teammates ever.
I am obviously rooting for the Red Sox, so this weekends two games were great. They do need to get better defensively, obviously, but that will be difficult when they ahve to put Ortiz at first. Manny literally falling all over himself in left certainly doesn't help.
As far as the Yankees are concerned, they just completed what has to be considered one of the freat failures in team sports history. It's not just that they lost 4 straight. They lost 4 straight when it mattered most, and when victory was literally withing the Hammer of God's grasp in the Ninth inning of game 4. My guess is they will go after Beltran, which won't help anything. This is a time when George is letting his ego get the best of him, and is not really looking at the makeup of his team. This team's offense was great, or atleast it was until game 4, but what it needs more than anything is a left handed starter and a reliable left handed reliever.
Horse race stuff is interesting: The Gallup poll was at something like 9 points for Bush last week, and now its at 5. The Washington Post tracking poll now gives Kerry a slight edge. From state to state though, things are not as encouraging. The Zogby polls showed Bush gains in a lot of battlegrounds, which there is not much time to reverse. Still, the story about the munitions dump, coupled with the gaffe from the Hannity interview may hurt Bush yet
As I watched Game 6 last week, I may have officially become part of Red Sox Nation when I was at the Zone in the ninth inning. The classic shot of Red Sox fans, especially in games 4 and five last week, was of course those people watching the game thru their fingers. That was largely me on Tuesday. During the eighth and ninth I had taken a composite NBA schedule that was available their and nearly wore the ink off by rubbing it together in nervous anticipation. I was awed by what Schilling did, and what he did on Sunday as well. The man obviously has a huge pain threshold and frankly, may be one of the great teammates ever.
I am obviously rooting for the Red Sox, so this weekends two games were great. They do need to get better defensively, obviously, but that will be difficult when they ahve to put Ortiz at first. Manny literally falling all over himself in left certainly doesn't help.
As far as the Yankees are concerned, they just completed what has to be considered one of the freat failures in team sports history. It's not just that they lost 4 straight. They lost 4 straight when it mattered most, and when victory was literally withing the Hammer of God's grasp in the Ninth inning of game 4. My guess is they will go after Beltran, which won't help anything. This is a time when George is letting his ego get the best of him, and is not really looking at the makeup of his team. This team's offense was great, or atleast it was until game 4, but what it needs more than anything is a left handed starter and a reliable left handed reliever.
Horse race stuff is interesting: The Gallup poll was at something like 9 points for Bush last week, and now its at 5. The Washington Post tracking poll now gives Kerry a slight edge. From state to state though, things are not as encouraging. The Zogby polls showed Bush gains in a lot of battlegrounds, which there is not much time to reverse. Still, the story about the munitions dump, coupled with the gaffe from the Hannity interview may hurt Bush yet
Monday, October 18, 2004
Wow
I didn't get a ton of sleep yesterday. I stayed up to watch the whole Red Sox- Yankee game, plus in the morning, a car parked near my apartment was having "alarm trouble", meaning it was going off for about thirty seconds for every minute. That pretty much sucked, I have to say.One word about the series. I don't blame Terry Francone. Schilling's ankle was far worse than they obviously expected. The relief pitching all simutaneously melting down in game three is not his fault either. The one move I really fault him for is staying with Mark Bellhorn for so long. I realize that Pokey is not exactly Ryne Sandberg at the plate at second, but he's far closer to Bill Mazeroski defensively, certainly more than Bellhorn. At least two plays last night would almost certainly have been made by Reese, plus a few that were not even attempted at the Stadium. Bellhorn has not produced offensively, so why not improve the defense? Of course, if Bellhorn gets a big hit tonight, I will be the first to agree that I am a moron.
If the Yankees are Pedro's daddy, does that make Bill Mueller Mariano Rivera's?
Rmember, before any potentially Democratic voters get despondent, particularly with the Gallup poll, remember that Gallup showed Bush with a 13% lead last time, on Oct. 26.Now, Gore did not exactly run a terrible campaign, but he didn't run one good enough to make up a 13 point gap in a week and a half either. Besides, if by the weekend the tracking polls show movement to Kerry, then will all the pundits say the race is Kerry's?
I agree with a lot of what John said about the Packers, though they certainly didn't seem to need anything yesterday as the crushed the Lions. I agree that Slowik needs to go. The defense is a gimmick, and gimmicks typically don't work for very long. Right now they are either blitzing everyone or blitzing no one, putting everybody in coverage. There has to be a happy medium. THe secondary is obvoiusly the issue. Darren Sharper has looked like he's been playing in sand so far this year, and the corners are young and need the safety help, and he's not providing it. I would say that they need to invest their next first round pick in either a defensive end, possibly David Pollack or Marcus Spears, or perhaps someone bigger like Dan Cody. Put Kampman and KGB on one side, becasue Kampman is much better against the run, and get KGB going on third down. If none of those ends are available, or they don't want to reach, I would take a safety, and moe Sharper to strong. Keep Bubba Franks. Take the heir to Favre in the Second round, someone like Dan Orlovsky of UConn, Kyle Orton of Purdue, David Greene of Georgia or Alex Smith of Utah. The big names like Andrew Walter, and potentially Leinart and Rogers will be gone already anyway. They also should look at drafting another corner, or adding Depth at DT and along the O-line.
The Lions need to add another defensive end opposite James Hall, since it has become obvious that Kalimba Edwards is not going to be a big time player. They also may need a safety badly, because both their safety's are old and slow. Shazor would look good, but if they end up drafting really low in the first round, I would hope they would take David Baas out of Michigan to play Left Guard.
I didn't get a ton of sleep yesterday. I stayed up to watch the whole Red Sox- Yankee game, plus in the morning, a car parked near my apartment was having "alarm trouble", meaning it was going off for about thirty seconds for every minute. That pretty much sucked, I have to say.One word about the series. I don't blame Terry Francone. Schilling's ankle was far worse than they obviously expected. The relief pitching all simutaneously melting down in game three is not his fault either. The one move I really fault him for is staying with Mark Bellhorn for so long. I realize that Pokey is not exactly Ryne Sandberg at the plate at second, but he's far closer to Bill Mazeroski defensively, certainly more than Bellhorn. At least two plays last night would almost certainly have been made by Reese, plus a few that were not even attempted at the Stadium. Bellhorn has not produced offensively, so why not improve the defense? Of course, if Bellhorn gets a big hit tonight, I will be the first to agree that I am a moron.
If the Yankees are Pedro's daddy, does that make Bill Mueller Mariano Rivera's?
Rmember, before any potentially Democratic voters get despondent, particularly with the Gallup poll, remember that Gallup showed Bush with a 13% lead last time, on Oct. 26.Now, Gore did not exactly run a terrible campaign, but he didn't run one good enough to make up a 13 point gap in a week and a half either. Besides, if by the weekend the tracking polls show movement to Kerry, then will all the pundits say the race is Kerry's?
I agree with a lot of what John said about the Packers, though they certainly didn't seem to need anything yesterday as the crushed the Lions. I agree that Slowik needs to go. The defense is a gimmick, and gimmicks typically don't work for very long. Right now they are either blitzing everyone or blitzing no one, putting everybody in coverage. There has to be a happy medium. THe secondary is obvoiusly the issue. Darren Sharper has looked like he's been playing in sand so far this year, and the corners are young and need the safety help, and he's not providing it. I would say that they need to invest their next first round pick in either a defensive end, possibly David Pollack or Marcus Spears, or perhaps someone bigger like Dan Cody. Put Kampman and KGB on one side, becasue Kampman is much better against the run, and get KGB going on third down. If none of those ends are available, or they don't want to reach, I would take a safety, and moe Sharper to strong. Keep Bubba Franks. Take the heir to Favre in the Second round, someone like Dan Orlovsky of UConn, Kyle Orton of Purdue, David Greene of Georgia or Alex Smith of Utah. The big names like Andrew Walter, and potentially Leinart and Rogers will be gone already anyway. They also should look at drafting another corner, or adding Depth at DT and along the O-line.
The Lions need to add another defensive end opposite James Hall, since it has become obvious that Kalimba Edwards is not going to be a big time player. They also may need a safety badly, because both their safety's are old and slow. Shazor would look good, but if they end up drafting really low in the first round, I would hope they would take David Baas out of Michigan to play Left Guard.
Thursday, October 14, 2004
The Grand Slam
I felt, watching the debate last night, that John Kerry beat President Bush. Granted, I myself am not an objective viewer, but I found Kerry to be both incredibly human, in talking about his mother and in talking about his faith, while simultaneously having a significantly greater grasp of the nuts and bolts of the domestic issues than the President. In listening to the reactions of the people at MSNBC, which have genearally been to the right of everyone else, meaning they went hard saying Cheney won last week and some said Bush won on Friday, and I got the impression that they felt it was a draw, which I think goes for Kerry. He had the momentum, and I think showed very interesting parts of himself. Bush was persona #3, the frat boy with faith, the one Al Gore faced in 2000, not the smirking monkey of #1 or Yosemite Sam we saw in #2. A couple of thoughts on other things:
I've really been surprised by the indignation with which Republicans have gone after Kerry for bringing up Mary Cheney during the question about Homosexuality as a choice. John Kerry did not "out" Mary Cheney. Mary Cheney was onstage at Case Western Reserve last week with her partner, people who follow this race know she is gay. I think Kerry was simply using her as a real life example, especially of someone who might be conflicted because of a conservative upbringing. Check out Andrew Sullivan, a gay man himself, for his thoughts on the subject.
Josh Marshall, as well as David Frum of Washington Monthly, pointed out something very interesting about the Osama Bin Laden quote the President used in 2002 and denied saying last night. Its not that he either lied or forgot that is interesting, instead its the emphasis on the fact that since the Taliban was gone, there was no reason to worry about Bin Laden. In IR at Albion, we learned all about the differences between state and non-state actors. Republicans like Bush, and perhaps the Neo-Cons in the Pentagon and at State seem to believe that states, and only states matter. NSA's- Non-State Actors don't. Bin Laden, without the support of the Taliban, was no longer important, Bush seems to have been thinking. Well, its very possible Al-Qaeda was responsible for the bombing in the Sinai last weekend, that they were responsible for Madrid, and may or may not be plotting something here. Obviously, NSAs do matter. The insurgency in Iraq, whether being carried out by Baath loyalists, foriegn terrorists or simple home-grown guerillas, is proof the NSAs matter. The first question last night was whether our children (meaning people of my generation) and our grandchildren will be safer in the future. The only real way to do that, in my estiamtion, is to acknowledge that the era of states as the only actors in the world are over. This also does explain why Iraq became the focus of the administration so quickly. They needed a state to go after, and Iraq seemed the logical choice. So what if we're engaged in a war against religous extremists, let's attack a secular Muslim state, while the Mullahs brutally rule over Iran, and Saudi royal money flows into Wahabbist schools? The Iraqi's just made an easy target because Saddam had been so arrogantly flaunting the world for a decade.
Fun stuff. Anyone in the Ann Arbor area, stop by Scorekeepers at 310 W. MAynard, across from Borders, tomorrow for the radio show. I actually hit my lock last week, bringing my record to a scintillating 1-5.
I felt, watching the debate last night, that John Kerry beat President Bush. Granted, I myself am not an objective viewer, but I found Kerry to be both incredibly human, in talking about his mother and in talking about his faith, while simultaneously having a significantly greater grasp of the nuts and bolts of the domestic issues than the President. In listening to the reactions of the people at MSNBC, which have genearally been to the right of everyone else, meaning they went hard saying Cheney won last week and some said Bush won on Friday, and I got the impression that they felt it was a draw, which I think goes for Kerry. He had the momentum, and I think showed very interesting parts of himself. Bush was persona #3, the frat boy with faith, the one Al Gore faced in 2000, not the smirking monkey of #1 or Yosemite Sam we saw in #2. A couple of thoughts on other things:
I've really been surprised by the indignation with which Republicans have gone after Kerry for bringing up Mary Cheney during the question about Homosexuality as a choice. John Kerry did not "out" Mary Cheney. Mary Cheney was onstage at Case Western Reserve last week with her partner, people who follow this race know she is gay. I think Kerry was simply using her as a real life example, especially of someone who might be conflicted because of a conservative upbringing. Check out Andrew Sullivan, a gay man himself, for his thoughts on the subject.
Josh Marshall, as well as David Frum of Washington Monthly, pointed out something very interesting about the Osama Bin Laden quote the President used in 2002 and denied saying last night. Its not that he either lied or forgot that is interesting, instead its the emphasis on the fact that since the Taliban was gone, there was no reason to worry about Bin Laden. In IR at Albion, we learned all about the differences between state and non-state actors. Republicans like Bush, and perhaps the Neo-Cons in the Pentagon and at State seem to believe that states, and only states matter. NSA's- Non-State Actors don't. Bin Laden, without the support of the Taliban, was no longer important, Bush seems to have been thinking. Well, its very possible Al-Qaeda was responsible for the bombing in the Sinai last weekend, that they were responsible for Madrid, and may or may not be plotting something here. Obviously, NSAs do matter. The insurgency in Iraq, whether being carried out by Baath loyalists, foriegn terrorists or simple home-grown guerillas, is proof the NSAs matter. The first question last night was whether our children (meaning people of my generation) and our grandchildren will be safer in the future. The only real way to do that, in my estiamtion, is to acknowledge that the era of states as the only actors in the world are over. This also does explain why Iraq became the focus of the administration so quickly. They needed a state to go after, and Iraq seemed the logical choice. So what if we're engaged in a war against religous extremists, let's attack a secular Muslim state, while the Mullahs brutally rule over Iran, and Saudi royal money flows into Wahabbist schools? The Iraqi's just made an easy target because Saddam had been so arrogantly flaunting the world for a decade.
Fun stuff. Anyone in the Ann Arbor area, stop by Scorekeepers at 310 W. MAynard, across from Borders, tomorrow for the radio show. I actually hit my lock last week, bringing my record to a scintillating 1-5.
Wednesday, October 13, 2004
Tonight
Ok, so I haven't posted in a week, and I'm sorry, various computer problems kept me from updating Monday and Saturday, so here I am today.
Tonight is the last great event of the campaign, or at least, scheduled event in the campaign. Looking at various tracking polls, especially Slate's election scorecard, this is getting extremely tight as we come down to the wire. The Slate site had neither candidate winning enough for Election, Bush at 270 and Kerry at 268. Ohio and Wisconsin were put in the Kerry column. Still, right now this is all sound and fury. If Kerry wins tonight, decisively or not, he probably wins the election, especially since all the talk over Thursday and Friday, and then going into Sunday morning, will be about how he's won every debate and has massive momentum. That the momentum thing is true is obvious, Bush's rather sizable lead of a few weeks ago has evaporated in nearly every poll. Bush needs a decisive win tonight in order to give himself the appearance of a momentum shift, but because of the moderator format, I don't know that he can get it, short of an enormous Kerry gaffe with no such gaffe on his own part. Both debates last week seem to have crystallized in people's minds as either, a draw in the case of the Veeps, or a slight Kerry win, if you believe the polls now coming in from Gallup and other organizations.
What I find curious right now is who both campaigns seem to be targeting. Bush is rallying the base right now, which may or may not be a sound strategy at this point. By all indications, turnout is going to be very heavy, which traditionally favors Democrats, perhaps the President wants to see if he can't change that paradigm. Kerry seems to be focusing his messages squarely to the undecided voters, hoping to get them in his column now, as opposed to remaining undecided, obviously. It seems that he's been doing a good job of that the last two weeks, so he perhaps should keep it up. I don't know that playing to his own base is really needed at this point either, they seem incredibly motivated.
I think the Red Sox win tonight, thanks primarily to the little man Pedro has now.
I know John will think I'm wrong, but I think the key to stopping the slide of the Packers might come this off-season. The Board of Directors needs to go to Mike Sherman and say "You either relinquish the GM job, or you're fired". With the McKenzie fiasco, the inability to find a competent backup QB, and the rather abymal drafts of the post-Wolf era (save Nick Barnett and Javon Walker), Mike Sherman the GM has failed Mike Sherman- Head Coach immensely. I would use the second rounder thay got from the Saint's for a QB, since, unless Leinart or Rogers come out, there arren't likely to be a lot of QB's in the first. Either that, or sign Drew Brees.
Ok, so I haven't posted in a week, and I'm sorry, various computer problems kept me from updating Monday and Saturday, so here I am today.
Tonight is the last great event of the campaign, or at least, scheduled event in the campaign. Looking at various tracking polls, especially Slate's election scorecard, this is getting extremely tight as we come down to the wire. The Slate site had neither candidate winning enough for Election, Bush at 270 and Kerry at 268. Ohio and Wisconsin were put in the Kerry column. Still, right now this is all sound and fury. If Kerry wins tonight, decisively or not, he probably wins the election, especially since all the talk over Thursday and Friday, and then going into Sunday morning, will be about how he's won every debate and has massive momentum. That the momentum thing is true is obvious, Bush's rather sizable lead of a few weeks ago has evaporated in nearly every poll. Bush needs a decisive win tonight in order to give himself the appearance of a momentum shift, but because of the moderator format, I don't know that he can get it, short of an enormous Kerry gaffe with no such gaffe on his own part. Both debates last week seem to have crystallized in people's minds as either, a draw in the case of the Veeps, or a slight Kerry win, if you believe the polls now coming in from Gallup and other organizations.
What I find curious right now is who both campaigns seem to be targeting. Bush is rallying the base right now, which may or may not be a sound strategy at this point. By all indications, turnout is going to be very heavy, which traditionally favors Democrats, perhaps the President wants to see if he can't change that paradigm. Kerry seems to be focusing his messages squarely to the undecided voters, hoping to get them in his column now, as opposed to remaining undecided, obviously. It seems that he's been doing a good job of that the last two weeks, so he perhaps should keep it up. I don't know that playing to his own base is really needed at this point either, they seem incredibly motivated.
I think the Red Sox win tonight, thanks primarily to the little man Pedro has now.
I know John will think I'm wrong, but I think the key to stopping the slide of the Packers might come this off-season. The Board of Directors needs to go to Mike Sherman and say "You either relinquish the GM job, or you're fired". With the McKenzie fiasco, the inability to find a competent backup QB, and the rather abymal drafts of the post-Wolf era (save Nick Barnett and Javon Walker), Mike Sherman the GM has failed Mike Sherman- Head Coach immensely. I would use the second rounder thay got from the Saint's for a QB, since, unless Leinart or Rogers come out, there arren't likely to be a lot of QB's in the first. Either that, or sign Drew Brees.
Tuesday, October 05, 2004
Anticipation
Ok, so I can't tell you what I think about what will happen tonight. I have read a lot of articles suggesting that this format does not fit Edwards style, and I agree with that. The question, though is will it matter. Dick Cheney is the Administration. He is the living embodiment of all this administration is. Extraordinarily partisan and secretive, ruthless beyond anything we've seen from President's not from Whittier College. I don't know if Cheney is the real puppet master or not. I think we on the left underestimate just how smart and how involved Bush really is. Still, Cheney is, beyond a shadow of a doubt, the most powerful Vice-President in the modern era, and probably ever. Edwards is going into this battle with six years of experience in Government. He is on the short end of the gravitas stick here. But still, I feel that his skills as an orator are such that he can cut into Bush/Cheney, and make the appeal that way, by talking about Haliburton, by bringing up Valerie Plame, and then Haliburton again. It will be exciting to watch.
The playoffs have opened and it is good. I expect both of the teams that won today to be victorious in their series. I am very interested in the way the Twins compete tonight, a lot of people have picked them in this series, despite a lack of success against the Yankees. If Santana is lights out tonight, wow, good stuff.
Ok, so I can't tell you what I think about what will happen tonight. I have read a lot of articles suggesting that this format does not fit Edwards style, and I agree with that. The question, though is will it matter. Dick Cheney is the Administration. He is the living embodiment of all this administration is. Extraordinarily partisan and secretive, ruthless beyond anything we've seen from President's not from Whittier College. I don't know if Cheney is the real puppet master or not. I think we on the left underestimate just how smart and how involved Bush really is. Still, Cheney is, beyond a shadow of a doubt, the most powerful Vice-President in the modern era, and probably ever. Edwards is going into this battle with six years of experience in Government. He is on the short end of the gravitas stick here. But still, I feel that his skills as an orator are such that he can cut into Bush/Cheney, and make the appeal that way, by talking about Haliburton, by bringing up Valerie Plame, and then Haliburton again. It will be exciting to watch.
The playoffs have opened and it is good. I expect both of the teams that won today to be victorious in their series. I am very interested in the way the Twins compete tonight, a lot of people have picked them in this series, despite a lack of success against the Yankees. If Santana is lights out tonight, wow, good stuff.
Monday, October 04, 2004
Kakistocracy
The Vice Presidential debate comes tomorrow. A lot of people remarked, in the days following Edwards' nomination, how interesting a contrast would come in the debate, with Dick Cheney, the dour CEO, against Edwards, the sunny trial lawyer. The important reason the debate will be interesting is the contrast in the jobs of the two men. CEOs and Trial lawyers live in different worlds, and when they collide, you often see extremely interesting debates and conversations. I would expect the same tomorrow. Cheney is incredibly well versed, and his demeanor, well his demeanor is one that conveys seriousness all the time. Edwards is almost Clintonian in his ability to connect with the common man. That's why the Republicans did not want a town hall debate here. Instead, we again have a sit down format, as we did last time.
The polls, predictably, have narrowed a great deal. The shocking shift, is of course, the Newsweek poll, which showed an 11 point Bush lead after the Republican convention, and a 2 point Kerry lead now. While not all that is a result of the debate, a lot of it is simple attrition in the last month. Still its obvious the debate has changed a lot of people's mines about John Kerry. The trick is now to at least get a draw in the next two debates, enough so that momentum does not shift back to the President. After today, there are 29 days til the election. One debate Friday, plus another the following Thursday, and then the final furlong, to use a horse racing term. Its getting into nitty-gritty time. Everyone needs to do what they can, especially in Michigan, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa, to get Kerry elected. At this point, its difficult to see a landslide for anyone, this is where the ground game becomes important.
The Vice Presidential debate comes tomorrow. A lot of people remarked, in the days following Edwards' nomination, how interesting a contrast would come in the debate, with Dick Cheney, the dour CEO, against Edwards, the sunny trial lawyer. The important reason the debate will be interesting is the contrast in the jobs of the two men. CEOs and Trial lawyers live in different worlds, and when they collide, you often see extremely interesting debates and conversations. I would expect the same tomorrow. Cheney is incredibly well versed, and his demeanor, well his demeanor is one that conveys seriousness all the time. Edwards is almost Clintonian in his ability to connect with the common man. That's why the Republicans did not want a town hall debate here. Instead, we again have a sit down format, as we did last time.
The polls, predictably, have narrowed a great deal. The shocking shift, is of course, the Newsweek poll, which showed an 11 point Bush lead after the Republican convention, and a 2 point Kerry lead now. While not all that is a result of the debate, a lot of it is simple attrition in the last month. Still its obvious the debate has changed a lot of people's mines about John Kerry. The trick is now to at least get a draw in the next two debates, enough so that momentum does not shift back to the President. After today, there are 29 days til the election. One debate Friday, plus another the following Thursday, and then the final furlong, to use a horse racing term. Its getting into nitty-gritty time. Everyone needs to do what they can, especially in Michigan, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Iowa, to get Kerry elected. At this point, its difficult to see a landslide for anyone, this is where the ground game becomes important.
Friday, October 01, 2004
Style Points...Going Old School
I really want to blog on two things tonight. First is obvious, the debate, second, well, that really doesn't matter in the larger scheme of things, but I think its interesting.
I listened to the whole debate. I came home from Chicago, and at about 7 eastern time, after I had grabbed dinner, I started listening to Hardball on MSNBC on my radio. Most everyone agreed that Kerry had to win , or at least be good enough to slow Bush's momentum. Most everyone seemed to agree that it had to be Kerry's night, or else it was basically over.
As the debate came on at nine I really wanted to listen for the way each person was speaking, to see how much substance they were conveying. One person on MSNBC said before the debate that he felt that Kerry needed to avoid speaking in long drawn out paragraphs and be more down to earth. I don't know that he did that, but then, I don't believe he really needed to do that. I felt, especially early on, as Kerry was speaking in these very articulate and obviously knowledgeable statements, that he was hitting on major points that connected with people. He knew what he was talking about on every issue, and it showed. The president, early on, and this continued throughout, kept fumbling for words, or worse, taking empty pauses that he was unable to occupy with a facial expression that could win him support (I should mention that I've been watching a lot of the post-debate stuff on all the networks, yes, including a little bit on FOX News when nothing else its on, or the other 2 cable networks are just putting on spin people. I thought that the analysis afterwards was right on. Kerry did win. He did not deliver a knockout, but then he didn't have to, he just needed to close the gap effectively, and I think that we'll see in the next few days, as all the Sunday shows put out there new polls, that the gap between Kerry and Bush will tighten, perhaps significantly.
A couple more points on the debate; Kerry looked far more Presidential than Bush did. Its amazing what happens when that seal is gone. Kerry was ram-rod straight throughout, Bush slouched. Bush looked annoyed, pensive or simply like he didn't want to be there in a lot of the shots I saw. Kerry didn't have any obvious Al Gore type of moments, where he was sighing during Bush's responses. He made notes, he smiled, he looked as if he was enjoying himself, but also as if he knew he was, at least for tonight, the better man. The radio test, which is, minus the cameras, I felt that Kerry won purely on substance, and on style. He was far more articulate, and far more substantive than Bush, especially towards the end. Someone on the post-show on MSNBC said that he felt like Bush had come with 35 minutes of material for a 90 minute debate, which I felt was accurate. I think that tonight, providing that Kerry has another really good showing next Friday in the second debate, served notice to the American people that John Kerry is someone capable of leading the war, and that he is worthy of the office. (By the way, The Daily Show grabbed this, but did anyone notice when Bush referred the Al-Qaida as 'a group of folks' . I think they might go beyond that.
The second thing has to do with getting baseball back in DC. I think its great. Major League Baseball's sad and shameful ownership of the Expos will be over soon, as will the fact that DC hasn't had a team in 33 years. Two points about this, a lot of folks, especially the Northern Virginia people keep saying that Washington lost baseball twice. That's not quite accurate. Both times the Senators left, in 1960 for Minnesota, and in 1971 for Arlington, TX, the owners simply got a ton of money to get them there, it wasn't that attendance was bad or anything. Second, they're doing a great thing by putting the new stadium in the Southeast part of the city, which really is the worst part of town. It should push economic development and be a big boost for the area. RFK is within a short Metro ride from downtown, and a really good temporary stadium, too. As for the name, I really like the idea of Mayor Williams' of calling the team the Grays, after the team from Washington that one 9 Negro League titles. The other names I like, as I heard them on PTI today, are the Generals and the Nationals, Federals works the same way. I think maybe they should leave the Senators in the past, besides, they want to make a point that they have no Senators, no voting power in Congress. I have my own suggestion, the Washington Power, that way, members of the team would be "Power players".
That is lame.
Happy Birthday Robert, and also, happy birthday, belatedly, to Karen.
I really want to blog on two things tonight. First is obvious, the debate, second, well, that really doesn't matter in the larger scheme of things, but I think its interesting.
I listened to the whole debate. I came home from Chicago, and at about 7 eastern time, after I had grabbed dinner, I started listening to Hardball on MSNBC on my radio. Most everyone agreed that Kerry had to win , or at least be good enough to slow Bush's momentum. Most everyone seemed to agree that it had to be Kerry's night, or else it was basically over.
As the debate came on at nine I really wanted to listen for the way each person was speaking, to see how much substance they were conveying. One person on MSNBC said before the debate that he felt that Kerry needed to avoid speaking in long drawn out paragraphs and be more down to earth. I don't know that he did that, but then, I don't believe he really needed to do that. I felt, especially early on, as Kerry was speaking in these very articulate and obviously knowledgeable statements, that he was hitting on major points that connected with people. He knew what he was talking about on every issue, and it showed. The president, early on, and this continued throughout, kept fumbling for words, or worse, taking empty pauses that he was unable to occupy with a facial expression that could win him support (I should mention that I've been watching a lot of the post-debate stuff on all the networks, yes, including a little bit on FOX News when nothing else its on, or the other 2 cable networks are just putting on spin people. I thought that the analysis afterwards was right on. Kerry did win. He did not deliver a knockout, but then he didn't have to, he just needed to close the gap effectively, and I think that we'll see in the next few days, as all the Sunday shows put out there new polls, that the gap between Kerry and Bush will tighten, perhaps significantly.
A couple more points on the debate; Kerry looked far more Presidential than Bush did. Its amazing what happens when that seal is gone. Kerry was ram-rod straight throughout, Bush slouched. Bush looked annoyed, pensive or simply like he didn't want to be there in a lot of the shots I saw. Kerry didn't have any obvious Al Gore type of moments, where he was sighing during Bush's responses. He made notes, he smiled, he looked as if he was enjoying himself, but also as if he knew he was, at least for tonight, the better man. The radio test, which is, minus the cameras, I felt that Kerry won purely on substance, and on style. He was far more articulate, and far more substantive than Bush, especially towards the end. Someone on the post-show on MSNBC said that he felt like Bush had come with 35 minutes of material for a 90 minute debate, which I felt was accurate. I think that tonight, providing that Kerry has another really good showing next Friday in the second debate, served notice to the American people that John Kerry is someone capable of leading the war, and that he is worthy of the office. (By the way, The Daily Show grabbed this, but did anyone notice when Bush referred the Al-Qaida as 'a group of folks' . I think they might go beyond that.
The second thing has to do with getting baseball back in DC. I think its great. Major League Baseball's sad and shameful ownership of the Expos will be over soon, as will the fact that DC hasn't had a team in 33 years. Two points about this, a lot of folks, especially the Northern Virginia people keep saying that Washington lost baseball twice. That's not quite accurate. Both times the Senators left, in 1960 for Minnesota, and in 1971 for Arlington, TX, the owners simply got a ton of money to get them there, it wasn't that attendance was bad or anything. Second, they're doing a great thing by putting the new stadium in the Southeast part of the city, which really is the worst part of town. It should push economic development and be a big boost for the area. RFK is within a short Metro ride from downtown, and a really good temporary stadium, too. As for the name, I really like the idea of Mayor Williams' of calling the team the Grays, after the team from Washington that one 9 Negro League titles. The other names I like, as I heard them on PTI today, are the Generals and the Nationals, Federals works the same way. I think maybe they should leave the Senators in the past, besides, they want to make a point that they have no Senators, no voting power in Congress. I have my own suggestion, the Washington Power, that way, members of the team would be "Power players".
That is lame.
Happy Birthday Robert, and also, happy birthday, belatedly, to Karen.
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